Secondary Sanctions Predictor

The Secondary Sanctions Predictor maps complex second-order relationships where countries and companies face penalties not for direct dealings with sanctioned nations but for doing business with anyone who trades with them. The system predicts which countries face secondary sanctions risk and identifies hidden exposure in portfolios before policies are announced.

Secondary sanctions create impossible compliance complexity where you potentially can't do business with India because India buys Russian oil, Germany because it receives Russian gas, China as Russia's largest trade partner, or Turkey operating as sanctions evasion hub. The India secondary tariff in August 2025 was announced with zero advance notice, causing companies exposed to Indian refiners to lose 32% in the first week. Hidden exposure lurks everywhere—your Indian renewable energy company sources equipment from Russian manufacturers, your Indonesian palm oil exporter sells to China which exports to Russia.

The Target Country Probability Model analyzes trade volumes with sanctioned nations, diplomatic relationships with the US, strategic importance, Trump administration rhetoric, and historical patterns to predict likely secondary sanctions targets. Second-Order Relationship Mapping traces whether your holdings trade with targeted nations, whether their suppliers or customers do, and whether their home country has systemic exposure. Risk Scoring tiers holdings from Imminent Risk to Strategic Risk. Early Warning Alerts activate when probability exceeds 40%, providing mobile alerts with affected holdings lists, recommended actions, and alternative investments. Compliance Scenario Planning models what-if scenarios showing total exposure if secondary sanctions expand to all countries buying Russian oil.

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