AI Sovereignty Tracker

The AI Sovereignty Tracker monitors technology export controls globally, maps company exposure to restricted technologies, identifies winners from technology nationalism, and models fragmentation of global AI infrastructure into incompatible US and China ecosystems. The platform covers semiconductor restrictions, AI model access, quantum computing controls, and telecommunications bans.

The AI industry is splitting into incompatible ecosystems where US restricts advanced AI chips to China, blocks EUV lithography equipment, controls quantum computing, and limits AI software access while China retaliates with rare earth magnet restrictions, graphite controls, and semiconductor equipment limits. National security concerns influence all technology partner decisions, challenging global IT infrastructure where NVIDIA can't sell best chips to China, ASML can't sell equipment, and Chinese AI companies can't access US cloud infrastructure. Forced architecture divergence creates US infrastructure using NVIDIA GPUs, AWS/Azure/Google cloud, and OpenAI/Anthropic models versus China's Huawei chips, Alibaba/Tencent cloud, and Baidu/SenseTime models becoming fundamentally incompatible like 1990s competing standards. Company-specific exposure varies enormously where NVIDIA faces huge China revenue risk, AMD has similar exposure, ASML finds Netherlands caught between powers, TSMC makes chips for both sides, and Chinese AI companies are cut off from best chips.

Export Control Database tracks US semiconductor controls including Entity List and FDPR rule, chip equipment restrictions on ASML and Tokyo Electron, AI software limitations, quantum technology controls, and telecommunications restrictions including Huawei ban with immediate updates when new controls announced. Company Technology Exposure Mapping analyzes every tech holding for China revenue percentage, restricted technology dependence, alternative market availability, and domestic champion potential benefiting from controls. Technology Bloc Classification categorizes holdings into US ecosystem (NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, US cloud), China ecosystem (Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, Chinese chip makers), Dual ecosystem (Samsung, TSMC serving both), and Neutral suppliers. Export Control Probability Model predicts next restrictions using national security rhetoric, technology timelines, prior patterns, and lobbying activity, currently flagging expanded cloud computing controls, AI model access restrictions, and quantum networking controls as high probability. Revenue Impact Calculator quantifies that US blocking all chip sales to China causes NVIDIA to lose $12B (30% of revenue), AMD $4B (15%), ASML €8B (25%). Alternative Market Opportunity identifies Chinese chip makers, Graphcore, and Cerebras gaining when NVIDIA is cut off. Technology Race Tracker monitors US versus China progress across chip manufacturing, AI models, quantum computing, 5G/6G, and batteries showing who's winning each race.