Regime Change Intelligence

Regime Change Intelligence tracks regime stability across 150+ countries using social media sentiment analysis, military defection patterns, economic collapse indicators, diplomatic isolation metrics, and historical precedent matching. The system generates daily stability scores and models multiple transition scenarios for each at-risk regime with specific sector and security-level implications.

Stability Scoring covers 150 countries with 0-100 scores based on economic indicators including inflation and unemployment, political factors like protest frequency and elite cohesion, military loyalty signals including defection patterns and payment delays, external pressure from sanctions and isolation, and historical pattern matching against similar countries that collapsed. Multi-Scenario Modeling automatically generates transition scenarios when stability drops below 40, including Regime Survives, Negotiated Transition, Military Coup, Civil War, and External Intervention, each with probability weighting updating continuously. Sector Impact Analysis models implications for each scenario showing banking collapses under civil war, real estate destruction from conflict, defense contractor benefits from instability, and reconstruction opportunities. Portfolio Exposure Mapping connects holdings to regime risk. Action Plans generate specific instructions to reduce vulnerable holdings, increase positions capturing opportunities, and establish options on scenarios. Real-Time Crisis Tracking activates when regime change occurs with continuous updates on power vacuum status, transition probabilities, portfolio impact, and recommended actions.

Stability Scoring covers 150 countries with 0-100 scores based on economic indicators including inflation and unemployment, political factors like protest frequency and elite cohesion, military loyalty signals including defection patterns and payment delays, external pressure from sanctions and isolation, and historical pattern matching against similar countries that collapsed. Multi-Scenario Modeling automatically generates transition scenarios when stability drops below 40, including Regime Survives, Negotiated Transition, Military Coup, Civil War, and External Intervention, each with probability weighting updating continuously. Sector Impact Analysis models implications for each scenario showing banking collapses under civil war, real estate destruction from conflict, defense contractor benefits from instability, and reconstruction opportunities. Portfolio Exposure Mapping connects holdings to regime risk. Action Plans generate specific instructions to reduce vulnerable holdings, increase positions capturing opportunities, and establish options on scenarios.